A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
