Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
