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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest shock.

But this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime strugglers improving in unison. Under an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still